Way back in a simpler time, in July of 2018, I wrote an article for Blues Buzz Blog (not a plug, not an endorsement) titled “The Case For Ville Husso”. My point was: “Hey, instead of rolling with streaky Jake Allen and weak backup Chad Johnson as a tandem, let’s toss some games Husso’s way, because he has had success at every level he’s played at.” Blues fans will remember what goaltender eventually got the nod in January of 2019 when the goaltending situation came to a head; Jordan Binnington is now under contract for 5 more seasons at $6 million per largely due to his play down the stretch that year. But Binnington only passed Husso in the depth chart because Husso was hurt at the time. The Blues are at a crossroads, and there is one clear path forward. Even though Jordan will forever be a St. Louis legend for bringing the city its first and only Stanley Cup, and even though I still believe he can still steal a game occasionally, it’s time Ville Husso took his rightful place at the helm of the St. Louis Blues.
In the article from 2018, which I’ll link below for reference, I compared Husso to several other European goaltenders that took a similar path to North America and had begun to show success in the league. The three comps I used were Juuse Saros, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Linus Ullmark. Ullmark has had a tough go of it in Boston this season. Husso, Saros, and Vasilevskiy sit 3rd, 4th, and 9th in goals saved above expected among qualified goalies, respectively. All three are putting up elite numbers, above guys like Connor Hellebuyck, John Gibson, reigning Vezina winner Marc-Andre Fleury, and Jordan Binnington himself, who sits 49th out 56 goaltenders with a pathetic -9.23 GSAx. But key difference between Ville Husso and his peers is that they are the solidified starters of their teams. Ville has been getting leaned on more heavily lately, but if the playoffs started tomorrow I’m not convinced he’d be in the starter’s net, especially given Berube’s track record of defaulting to Binnington as “The Guy In The Playoffs” despite the fact that Binnington hasn’t looked good in (or won!) a single playoff game since Game 7 in Boston.
My goal here is not to disparage Jordan Binnington. I truly think he has the ability to single-handedly win games, and his swagger and fire add an element to the Blues that undeniably inspires the team to win games. I’m not a huge “heart and soul” guy in general, but it’s a fact that teams rally around that kind of stuff, and it’s also a fact that Binnington brings that to the table. On the other hand, he’s just flat out getting outplayed by Ville Husso right now—and the crazy thing is, Binnington could have a completely inverse season, flipping that -9.23 GSAx into a positive 9.23 GSAx (which would put him just below Vasilevskiy for 10th in the league), and Husso would STILL be crushing him with a whopping 17.28 GSAx, despite playing only 20 games. Point being: Binnington having a bad year is not the reason that Ville Husso should be starting. Ville Husso should be starting because he’s an elite goaltender, and riding him to the finish gives St. Louis their best chance to make a deep playoff run.
There are only two goaltenders having a better season than Ville Husso (Igor Shesterkin and Frederik Andersen), and both of them are legitimately in the MVP conversation. Unloading Husso at the deadline would be a huge mistake; letting him walk in free agency would be a huge mistake; not playing him down the stretch and into the playoffs would be a huge mistake. Whatever salary cap gymnastics must be done to make sure Husso is a Blue at this time next year must be taken. He’s the goalie of the future. He’s the goalie of right now. And some of us saw this coming 4 years ago.
It’s been three weeks since our last weekly roundup, and I have decided to rename this series to set some more accurate expectations for the frequency of these articles. I’m sorry for the break, and I hope that you can forgive me. Without further ado, let’s dive into what’s gone down since we last spoke…
The Blues—Flailing Atop the West
In the last three weeks, the Blues have gone 4-4-1, including 3-3-1 in seven straight against the Coyotes and 1-1 most recently against the Sharks. The Blues are first in the West if you open up the NHL app and look at the standings, but their points percentage is below that of both Vegas and Colorado, who have 3 and 4 games in hand, respectively. Going below .500 in their last nine games doesn’t help matters for the Blues, and also not helping matters is the fact that they can’t seem to play a game without losing another forward to injuries. Here are some bits and pieces of note from the last 9 games:
Bright spots. Ryan O’Reilly and David Perron have both been playing at the dominant level that they normally do, both in terms of point production and controlling shot share. They started the season a bit slow, so their return to form as a duo is a great sign. Another player who has rebounded after a slow start is Vince Dunn. In the last 9 games, he boasts a 54.74 FF% (unblocked shot share) and 51.08 xGF%. His actual goals-for percentage is only 41.67%, but that should regress to something closer to the expected goals number. Another guy whose actual goals-for is chasing his expected is Robert Bortuzzo, who in 6 games since returning to the lineup has an impressive 59.77 FF%, 63.49 xGF%, yet only a 20 GF%. Finally, MacEachern has played pretty well in a limited role since stepping into the lineup due to injuries. Should he be a regular? Probably not. But he’s been more impressive than some of the other additions to the lineup.
Not so bright spots. First up is the inverse to Dunn and Bortuzzo above. This is a player that is putting up goals despite getting pretty well dominated at even strength: Mike Hoffman. With a 44.9 FF% and 44.44 xGF%, Hoffman is kind of getting lit up while he’s on the ice. And yet, the Blues score 66.67% of all goals scored while he’s on the ice. On the one hand, Hoffman has never been a great puck possession player and has still managed to find a way to score throughout his career. On the other hand, having bad puck possession players in large roles definitively hurts teams, and both Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou have been dragged down since Hoffman spent some time with them. Both are getting outshot and outscored while on the ice at even strength, even after Kyrou’s three-point night Saturday.
Really not so bright spots. Zach Sanford and Carl Gunnarsson have no business being in the lineup anymore. Both are getting badly outshot while on the ice, and even more badly outscored. In fact, in the last 9 games (of which Sanford has played 8 and Gunnarsson 7), the Blues are getting outscored 3 goals to 1 while either of these players is on the ice. That’s atrocious. It’s also a nice example of how the “eye test” and the statistical approach of analyzing players should almost always line up together; Sanford has had some obvious and egregious turnovers that directly led to goals in the past week, and a deeper look into his stats says that, yeah, it’s pretty common for him to be outshot and outscored, especially when he’s not glued to Ryan O’Reilly. Get these guys out of here as soon as possible.
Shooting percentage anomalies. The story of the season for the Blues this year has been Jordan Kyrou exploding onto the scene. Part of what’s fueling his 17-point campaign (including an incredibly impressive 15 at even strength) in 18 games is his 21.88% shooting percentage. That’s very high, and while it is normal for higher-skill players to have a higher shooting percentage than average—because, quite simply, they’re just better at shooting the puck—this one is sure to come back down to earth a little bit. Conversely, Ivan Barbashev, who has 5 even strength points and only 1 goal, is shooting at only 4.76%. While Barbashev is not a player like Kyrou who you’d expect to shoot at an above average clip, he also shouldn’t be shooting at this low of a clip. Expect some more bounces to go his way whenever he gets healthy again; it’s a sure thing that Kyrou and Barbashev will have much more similar shooting percentages at the end of the season than they do now.
The next few weeks. The Blues have three weeks of games against bad teams coming up, facing off several times against all three of the California teams. This is a good opportunity to recover from injuries and get back to playing at the level that they’ll need to be at when Vegas and Colorado come back in town. On the other hand, the top-heavy nature of the West means that, while in theory these games are a nice break for the Blues, in a way these are actually must-win games; they won’t come any easier that this. And if the Blues can’t cash in on as many of these easy points as possible, they might dig themselves into an insurmountable hole in the race for home ice advantage in the playoffs, and the privilege of not having to face one of Vegas or Colorado in the first round.
Around the League
Toronto rules the North. This isn’t really a surprise, but the last week or so the Maple Leafs have established themselves as the clear best team in Canada, and Auston Matthews has further established himself as perhaps the best goal scorer playing right now. There is some debate on whether Toronto is actually an elite team or just feasting on the weakest division, but in my mind the end result is the same: Toronto stands alone at the top of the North, and the final 4 playoff spot is theirs to lose.
Dallas and Chicago will eventually switch places. The Stars have struggled after getting off to a hot start, and the Blackhawks—I mean Kevin Lankinen—have been shockingly… good? Okay, let me clarify: Kevin Lankinen has been the best goalie in the NHL thus far, which probably won’t continue being the case, and the Blackhawks are still a weak team that is overmatched in their division. Expect everything to correct itself in the Central division soon enough, with both the Stars and even the Blue Jackets more aptly built for the playoff spot that the Blackhawks currently hold.
Lake Tahoe. This past weekend, the NHL hosted two outdoor games on the shore of Lake Tahoe. I’ve been to Lake Tahoe before, and it’s a truly beautiful place; the scenery set up by the league did not disappoint. There were some issues with the ice during the Saturday game, causing a nearly 9-hour pause between the first and second periods. I saw a lot of complaining about this, and even more “classic NHL” one-liners. While issues like that are right up the NHL’s alley, they shouldn’t and don’t take away from how legitimately cool these games were. I haven’t seen something as unique and amazing as a slow-mo highlight of a David Pastrnak goal with an orange sunset and silhouettes of the Sierra Nevadas in the background while watching sports possibly ever. To top it off, the NBC broadcast was unusually bearable and, dare I say, even fun. Good job, NHL. I knew there was a reason I liked you.
All stats from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
Craig Berube is notorious among Blues fans for his line shuffling. Sometimes, it makes sense to break up a line that clearly isn’t working. But other times, it seems that the Blues have finally found a line that works, and then Berube shifts it anyway! Making sense of which pairings are strong and which pairings are weak can be tough, especially after seeing some games recently where the team looks very good. With this in mind, we’ve decided to tag-team an article, breaking down the pairings we each see as the right path forward for the blue sweaters to win it all.
First things first, the lines of the last 6 games:
1/24 – loss vs. LAK, 6-3 Perron – O’Reilly – Sanford Schwartz – Schenn – Kyrou Hoffman – Bozak – Thomas Clifford – Sundqvist – Barbashev
2/4 – loss vs. ARI, 4-3 Perron – O’Reilly – Sanford Schwartz – Schenn – Kyrou Blais – Thomas – Hoffman Clifford – Barbashev – Sundqvist
Krug – Faulk Dunn – Parayko Gunnarsson – Mikkola
Offensive Pairings
Brendan’s First Line
Perron – O’Reilly – Sanford
Although this isn’t the “first line” in terms of offensive production, it’s the line I want out there against the other team’s best players every night. Sanford hasn’t played very well individually yet, but there’s a reason that these two wingers are the ones that Berube has kept by O’Reilly’s side so consistently.
Thomas’s First Line
Schwartz – Schenn – Kyrou
This line is high-flying and aggressive, definitely a scorer’s dream. The weak tick in this line would be Schenn’s faceoff percentage, which isn’t very strong but can suffice to combo with his high productivity. Huge risk with this line however, as they will be going up against the opponent’s best. Definitely a test for the trio.
Brendan’s Second Line
Schwartz – Schenn – Kyrou
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. This has been the Blues’ best line in terms of expected goals, and, more importantly, the best in terms of actual goals. If Kyrou keeps up playing how he has been, this could very easily be the best second line in the league.
Thomas’s Second Line
Perron – O’Reilly – Thomas
I have extremely high hopes for Robert Thomas, as do most people who have watched his play progress recently. Pairing him with elite veterans like Perron and O’Reilly will both enhance his performance and add speed to their wing. O’Reilly and Perron should be able to bully a much less experienced and talented 2nd line for most opponents.
Brendan’s Third Line
Blais – Thomas – Hoffman
Okay, so all three of my lines so far have mirrored the most recent. But the Blues have played their best hockey most recently, in large part due to how these lines have been playing. This is the first line that Hoffman has played on that has performed well, and although I hate leaving Thomas out of the top 6, I’d rather have him as a center than playing on O’Reilly’s wing. Blais rounds out the line, and as I discussed in my Weekly Roundup on Monday I think he should stay there even when Bozak returns.
Thomas’s Third Line
Blais – Bozak – Hoffman
A lot of my mentality with this line is “prove it”. I need all three of these players to prove to me what I want to see in them: talent for a solid and secured position in the lineup. Hoffman has started slower than expected, which I believe to be because he is no longer paired with the strongest players on the ice like in Florida. Clifford and Blais feel very rotational to me right now, but I’d love for them to prove me wrong. Recently, Hoffman has had good pairings with Blais, so the duo should stick together, although Bozak is a newer match when he returns.
Brendan’s Fourth Line
Barbashev – Bozak – Sundqvist
Whenever Bozak does come back, I think he should start here. Not necessarily due to his own play, but rather the play of his teammates above him in the lineup. The Clifford-Barbashev-Sundqvist line has been atrocious, so break that baby up by all means. I’d also be fine with getting Clifford some games over Sundqvist, who has been extremely unimpressive to me thus far.
Thomas’s Fourth Line
Sanford – Sundqvist – Barbashev
At this point, my line is designed as much for pain and punishment as possible. Send in the fourth line and break them down and wear them out, our depth will outlast that of most teams and can spare some shaky legs from these three. Sanford has been playing at a higher level than fourth liner, but maybe a little bit of weaker opposition will allow for him to exhibit his talents to a greater degree.
Defensive Pairings
Brendan’s First Pair
Krug – Faulk
Faulk has been the best defenseman on the team this season, and Krug is the obvious choice to play on his left. This is a very offensive-leaning pair, but not to a fault. Krug has quietly been one of the best defenseman in the league the last few years; Faulk has not, but they can still do great things together.
Thomas’s First Pair
Scandella – Parayko
The first offensive line I built is heavy in offensive potential but lacking on the defensive end of the ice, which I would like to counter with what I see as our strongest defensive pairing. The stretch and pace control of these two should give the aggressive first line the solid foundation to fall back on in times of trouble.
Brendan’s Second Pair
Scandella – Parayko
This is the defensive counterpart to the offensive first pairing. This pair was very effective last season, and has the potential to fill the “two-way shutdown pair” role that hasn’t truly been filled on this team since the Bouwmeester-Pietrangelo prime years. Okay, so it won’t be that good. But you get the idea.
Thomas’s Second Pair
Krug – Faulk
The opposite of the first line, the second line is all about offensive potential. The second line of forwards has the strength and experience to play tough defence with their offensive output, allowing a more aggressive defensive pairing to play the second line here.
Brendan’s Third Pair
Dunn – Mikkola
It hurts me a bit to keep Dunn out of the top four, and at the beginning of the season I definitely would have had him with Faulk on the second pair. He’s taken steps forward in the last week, but he’ll have to prove it a bit more to move up in my fictional lineup. Mikkola hasn’t been overly impressive to me, but he’s a solid defensive partner that can let Dunn cook a little bit.
Thomas’s Third Pair
Dunn – Mikkola
Dunn’s play has certainly improved over the last few games, and I’m always eager to try out young guns after a 2019 Championship fueled by youth. Despite his improved play, Dunn has not performed well enough to break up the two higher lines that have been in complete sync.
Not Making the Cut
Brendan’s Picks
Clifford, Bortuzzo, and Gunnarsson are my healthy scratches. Clifford is the odd man out on my fourth line, and like I mentioned he could easily be flipped back in. Gunnarsson has been the worst player on the team so far this season, so he’s an obvious omission. And Bortuzzo is a guy who’s perceived value has been higher than his actual value for a long time, much like most players with his style of play. He can ride the pine to start, and step in for Mikkola if the rookie falters.
Thomas’s Picks
Sorry Clifford, you’re my weakest link of the forwards. I have yet to be impressed with his performance, and it seems that he has often slowed down his lines in terms of offensive production.
Gunnarsson. A very weak defensive verteran in my book, and I don’t see him breaking up the top two defensive pairings or playing at a level to justify dumping our younger and equally as solid defensemen in the third line.
Bortuzzo. That’s all. I have never fully bought the idea that Bortuzzo is a talented hockey player. May just be me, but he strikes me as a body on the ice and a punisher more than a skater.
We’re back for a third time. This week’s piece looks at some of the Blues on-ice concerns, despite the fact that the team is coming off its best week of the young season. Then, we dive into some off-ice news from around the league. Please keep reading, and spread the good news! “I love nothing more than reading your weekly roundups every Monday at work, Brendan!” – Thomas Lally.
The Blues—Taking Steps Forward
This week saw the Blues string together their first back-to-back wins of the season: a 5-4 shootout win in Vegas and a 6-1 throttling of the Ducks in Anaheim. In between these games, of course, was the postponed second half of the two game series in Vegas. The Blues finished the week last night in Anaheim, picking up a 4-1 win and extending the winning streak to three games in what was a solid end to a week that has been the most re-assuring of the season. Here are some Blues developments I’ve kept an eye on this week:
Vince Dunn. Dunn is the hot topic this week, understandably, following Berube’s decision to scratch him against Vegas. Dunn was back in the lineup for both convincing wins against the Ducks, but there have been many credible people around the league that have reported not only that the Blues are listening to calls on Dunn, but that he’s fully on the trade block. I think many fans took this to mean that Dunn is as good as gone, which I don’t necessarily think is the case, but the rumblings are impossible to ignore. I have a few thoughts on this whole situation. On the one hand, I’ve been a big Vince Dunn fan since he broke into the league. He’s consistently put up elite numbers in a very sheltered role, and I have been of the opinion that he should have been playing in the top 4 for all of last season and beyond. On the other hand, he deserved to be scratched. This year has been a small step back for Dunn; a step that will probably keep him out of the top 4 yet again. The Blues’ shot attempts are nothing more than “fine” with Dunn on the ice, the expected goals numbers are bad (47.6 xGF%), and the actual goals for are just terrible (26.63%). This is a classic case of a player’s results being worse than expected and getting blamed more than he should for it; that being said, Dunn has had some pretty egregious turnovers that have directly led to goals, so I’m fine with some criticism.
Covid. The Blues got their first taste scheduling turmoil this week, having a contest in Vegas postponed the morning before the game. The Golden Knights coaches were absent from the first game of the series already, and two more within the organization entered protocol the next day, including Alex Pietrangelo. Petro claimed that he had not come into contact with any Blues players, which seems to be true based on the way Jordan Kyrou blew past him on Tuesday (*air horns*). Jokes aside, based on my general coronavirus knowledge—that it takes 4-7 days after exposure to begin experiencing symptoms—we could be seeing some Blues players enter protocol in the next day or two because of this Vegas incident. On the other hand, if we make it through Wednesday or Thursday without anyone within the organization being put into the Covid protocol, it’s probably safe to assume that the Blues avoided potential crisis. Only time will tell.
Sammy Blais should stay in the lineup. This might be a little easier to swallow after last night’s game, in which Blais put in his first goal of the season, but even prior to that he had been playing well in a limited role. With Blais on the ice, the Blues have been controlling shot attempts and expected goal rates by a pretty wide margin. Before last night’s game Blais had team-best even strength rates in both, with a 72.56 FF% and 82.89 xGF%. Blais has earned his right to play, and when Bozak returns I think Blais shouldn’t have to sit. I’ve been unimpressed with Sundqvist, Clifford, and Sanford, personally, and I don’t think their subpar play has gone unnoticed.
Niko Mikkola? Maybe not. Mikkola has been a nice breath of fresh air on the defensive side of the puck; that is until you take a look at his numbers. Before last night’s game, the Blues’ unblocked shot share with him on the ice at even strength was 36.44%, the worst among Blues defensemen. He’s pretty good defensively, with the Blues giving up only 35.95 unblocked shot attempts per game at even strength with him on the ice, which is the third best rate on the team. On the other hand, his shot share shows how negligible (or perhaps actively bad) he is at creating offense. I’m sensing a bit of Petteri Lindbohm-syndrome here: a young Finnish defenseman who bursts onto the NHL scene and seems to be a real difference maker, but maybe doesn’t have the stats to back it up. That said, Gunnarsson hasn’t been good either and I’m not a huge Bortuzzo fan, so maybe Mikkola will hold onto his spot.
Ville Husso’s second career start. Last night was the coming out party that I’ve been waiting three years for. Husso saved 25 of the 26 shots he faced, including 23 of 23 at even strength. It was against the Ducks, so take that into consideration, but last night’s game was a reassuring sign that Husso can play some effective games for the Blues this season. And before Sunday that’s not something that we could say confidently.
The next week. The Blues have another four game home stand this upcoming week, hosting the Arizona Coyotes twice before a weekend back-to-back versus the Colorado Avalanche. In an ideal world, the Blues win both against the Coyotes and at least one against the Avalanche. It will be interesting to see how prepared the Blues are to play a dangerous opponent in the Avalanche after four straight games against bottom-end teams, but in this division they’ll need to get used to the wide gap between the skill level of their opponents, and playing the Ducks and the Coyotes four times in two weeks will not excuse a slow start against Colorado.
Around the League
Penguin’s general manager finally fired. As I mentioned in my first Weekly Roundup, the Penguins are starting to be forced to come to terms with their present reality, whether they are ready to or not. The firing of GM Jeremy Rutherford this week seems to indicate that ownership realizes that something—or some things—with the current construction of the team isn’t working; a concern that seemed pretty obvious to those of us that don’t work in the Pittsburgh front office. Whether the Penguins go into full rebuild mode remains to be seen, but with the aging core they have I wouldn’t count on it. A re-tool with a new long-term vision for the team seems more likely. Either way, GM JR isn’t the guy you want at the reins for the next chapter, and despite the fact that he probably should have been fired a year or more ago, this is a smart move by the Penguins.
Tony DeAngelo. If you have somehow managed to avoid hearing about this saga yesterday, I applaud you. I’m not going to go deep into the past transgressions of DeAngelo, or explain the many clear reasons why he’s a bad person who isn’t suited to be a part of the NHL, or really any professional organization that isn’t the KKK. If you haven’t heard, Tony DeAngelo, who for the last several seasons has been one of the better defenseman on the New York Rangers and has also made his pro-Trump, anti-immigrant, QAnon-adjacent personality impossible to ignore, was placed on waivers. It seems that things boiled over Saturday night with his teammates, and names of those involved in the altercation that have come out as of Sunday night are Alexander Georgiev and Chris Kreider. By the time you’re reading this, DeAngelo will have either cleared waivers or been claimed by another team. If he clears, it will be interesting to see how the Rangers handle him, and how he reacts to a probable AHL assignment. If he gets claimed, it’s just further evidence how hypocritical the culture around the NHL remains—continuing to yell and scream constantly about how being a good teammate is all that matters, while simultaneously giving second and third chances to the guys who prove time and again that they’re assholes to their teammates. To anyone who sees DeAngelo as a martyr for his politics, don’t. You’re wrong. Many people won’t like to admit it, but Tony DeAngelo is not in the political minority in the NHL. Far from it. DeAngelo isn’t being punished for being an outspoken Trump supporter; he’s being punished for his own indefensible words and actions, just as he has ever since he was a junior hockey player.
All stats from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
Welcome to the second installment of me talking about hockey things, both Blues-related and otherwise. It’s been a relatively active week around the league, so we have some good things in store. Thanks to all 4 of you who have been reading what we’ve put out so far. Thomas and I deeply appreciate it, and we hope you’re enjoying it too. Now let’s get into the action…
The Blues—Another Tumultuous Week
This week, much like Week 1, showed us some serious strengths and some serious weaknesses in St. Louis. The Blues ended up going 2-1-1 on the week, picking up a regulation win each against the Sharks and the Kings to go with a shootout loss to the Sharks and an abysmal regulation loss to the Kings last night, in which the Blues lacked urgency for ~50 of 60 minutes. Here are some developments that are worth discussing:
Special teams leveling out, but still bad. Both the penalty kill and power play are in the bottom quadrant of the league, ranking 4th and 3rd worst in the league, respectively. Surprisingly, both of these numbers improved over the course of the week. At a certain point though—and I’m not a coach, so bear with me here—why not change up the personnel? Maybe sending out the same guys that can’t do the job effectively isn’t the best strategy.
Jordan Kyrou. The brightest of the week’s bright spots is without a doubt Jordan Kyrou, the young gun that finally seems to have bridged the gap between having potential and reaching that potential. He has 6 points in 6 games. He has a team-best penalty differential, having drawn 2 penalties and taken none. Of players that have played all 6 games, he leads the team in xGF% and FF%, proof that while he’s on the ice the Blues dominate play. Beyond the numbers, it’s clear that Kyrou has developed a lot as a player off the puck, both in terms of his effort level and his awareness. He’s the fastest skater on the team, and he’s gotten stronger. This team would be in a much worse position this season without Kyrou having taken these big steps forward.
Fourth line needs to change. Before Sunday’s game, the Clifford-Barbashev-Sundqvist line had played 17.78 even strength minutes together over the course of 4 games. Over that time, they have not scored a goal, controlled only 21.43% of unblocked shot attempts, and had a 7.5 xGF% (!!!), a number so bad that I didn’t believe it at first. That means that the Blues are expected to be outscored at a pace higher than 9-1 when this line plays together. None of these guys are playing that badly individually, but for whatever reason they just forget how to play hockey when all three are on the ice together. The fourth line needs to change.
Goaltending updates. Jordan Binnington continues to prove me wrong, putting up a .938 even strength save percentage through 5 games, good for 8th out of all goalies that have played more than 1 game. That’s hard to complain about. Binnington has also saved 2.06 goals above average at even strength, which is the 4th-best mark in the entire league. I’m still skeptical, but that’s due to my own stubbornness and not Jordan’s play this season thus far. Ville Husso made his first start last night, and I think this one should also be collectively forgotten. He looked shaky at first but settled in, and I think some nerves can be forgiven to anyone making their first NHL start. His team also did him no favors. We’ll see how Husso plays moving forward, but so far he hasn’t given the indication that he can be a reliable backup, as much as it pains me to admit. Fortunately, the Blues have a habit of turning backup goaltenders into starters, so I’m holding out hope for my boy Ville.
Around the League
The Blue Jackets and Jets made a pretty big trade. The Blue Jackets sent disgruntled top line center Pierre-Luc Dubois and a third round pick to Winnipeg, getting back goal scoring machine Patrik Laine and Columbus native Jack Roslovic. I think this is a trade that has the potential to work out well for both sides, but to me the Blue Jackets come out on top here. I’m a big Patrik Laine fan, and while he might not be the “next Alex Ovechkin” that he was thought to be, he’s still been one of the league’s best goal scorers since being drafted. There is one potential red flag in my eyes: a common concern with Laine was that he was struggling to reach his full potential due to the players he had been playing with in Winnipeg; I don’t see that issue being resolved in Columbus, in fact it might even be a step down. Finally, it’s hilarious to me that all of these players that didn’t want to be where they were switch places, all getting fresh starts but all still playing in places that players have a history of not wanting to be. Grass is always greener, I guess.
Vancouver is shockingly bad. It’s not really a surprise that the Canucks look worse than they did last season, but they are sitting only above the Senators in the North—a much worse start than anticipated. With a 2-5-0 record, the league’s worst goal differential (-13), and its stars nowhere to be found, things are starting to enter crisis mode in Vancouver. It’s probably safe to assume that Elias Petterson will start playing like the superstar he is, Quinn Hughes will elevate back up to Norris-conversation level, and the goaltending tandem of Holtby and Demko will stabilize the team. But until the top players step up, the rest of the roster doesn’t have the power to lift this team into contention. Luckily, there are still plenty of games left to play.
Mike Babcock. The former head coach re-entered the public eye for the first time in over a year, since being fired by the Maple Leafs and promptly accused of verbally abusing and emotionally manipulating some players, dating all the way back to his Red Wings days. All these accusations were corroborated and the stories confirmed by other players that were in those locker rooms. This week, The Athletic’s Pierre Lebrun, a typically respected reporter and one of the league’s most plugged-in insiders, dropped a puff-piece “interview” with Babcock, essentially with the sole purpose of clearing his name before his debut on NBC later in the week. The interview was nothing more than pathetic, with Babcock brushing off or even flat-out denying the accusations, even stooping as low as to say that he felt terrible himself about being accused. Lebrun had no meaningful follow-up questions and did not hold Babcock accountable in the least. Flash forward to Sunday, when Babcock makes his broadcasting debut in the studio on NBC—on national television—at noon. Not surprisingly, the brief conversation had about the Babcock accusations was more of the same. Despite what the mainstream hockey media is trying to force-feed us, we cannot let Babcock’s blatant mistreatment of his players go forgotten, especially not without a single shred of remorse. NBC: get this freak off my TV.
All stats from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
Hello all. Throughout the season I’ll being doing these “week in review” pieces. The plan is to drop one every Monday. They’ll focus on the Blues: looking back at how they played in the last week, looking forward to the next week, and following along with any developing storylines. I’ll also include some tidbits from around the league on some interesting stats, notable performances, or just things you should know to be a well-rounded hockey fan. Without any further ado…
The Blues—Highs and Lows
This was a back and forth week for the Blues, and that’s putting it lightly. St. Louis followed up a 4-1 win in their season opener by getting blown out 8-0, both versus Colorado. Here’s some things I noticed during these two games:
Penalties, and an inability to kill them. This is inarguably the most glaring issue for the Blues through two games. They have an unbelievably bad penalty killing percentage at 45.5%, far and away the worst mark of any team that’s played yet. For reference, anything beneath 80% should be a red flag. This is obviously an issue that needs to be figured out, but it’s made much worse by the quantity of penalties they’re taking; in Friday’s blowout loss, the Avalanche were gifted 7 power plays, scoring on 5 of them. Giving up 5 power play goals essentially guarantees a loss, but so does giving up 7 power plays. The penalty differential is a serious issue—as serious as the penalty killing deficiencies—and the discipline needs to be stepped up. The worst on the team has been Robert Bortuzzo, the only Blue that has taken two minor penalties already. Not what you want to see through two games, especially by a guy that’s supposed to be one of your penalty killers. But hey, the way their shorthanded play has gone so far, maybe it’s best to not have those guys out there.
The “top” line. Despite being outscored 9-4 through two games, one of which was an absolute embarrassment, the Blues actually have played pretty well at even strength, with one notable exception: the first line. The Schenn-O’Reilly-Perron line has gotten absolutely dominated at even strength in terms of shot attempts. Ryan O’Reilly, normally an elite play driver, leads the trio with a terrible 33.67 xGF%. This means that, based on the quantity and quality of shots by both teams while this line is on the ice, they are expected to be giving up 2 goals for every 1 they score. That’s really bad, especially for the first line. And sure, they’ve been matched up with Nathan Mackinnon, arguably the best player in the league right now. But O’Reilly just won a Selke trophy, and he’s widely known as one of the best defensive players in the league. He’s also capable of carrying his linemates; Schenn and Perron are competent defensively, but not elite. Not even a matchup against Mackinnon can excuse these numbers. This will improve—it must if the Blues hope to win—and it’s looking like this line will get broken up anyway.
Robert Thomas: elite? There were no bright spots in Friday’s game, but one of the several in Wednesday’s game was the elite play of Robert Thomas. He put up two points (both assists, both filthy) and looked like he had the puck on a string. He looked comfortable, confident, and ready to prove my bold prediction correct. While he’s on the ice the Blues are dominating in shot attempts, with a 56.5 FF% (which measures unblocked shot attempts), paired with a 64.5 xGF%. The actual GF% with Thomas on the ice is 67.8%; it’s a good sign to have xGF% and GF% so close together, as it means that Thomas is producing as expected, so this should be a maintainable pace as long as luck stays on his side. Something surprising about Thomas’s play so far, however, is that he hasn’t taken a single shot attempt at even strength. Every other forward on the team has at least one, and only Marco Scandella also has zero. There are two takeaways from this in my mind: 1. Robert Thomas’s line is dominating in shot attempts and goals, and the best shooter literally hasn’t even shot yet. 2. Robert Thomas needs to shoot the damn puck sometimes. They can only get better.
The goaltending. I’ll keep this brief since it’s hard to really read into goaltending after two games, especially when one of them is an 8-0 loss. Binnington’s save percentage is 0.900—pretty bad. On the other hand, his even strength save percentage is 0.947—pretty good. I don’t think Binnington is blameless on some of those power play goals, in fact I think some of them were weak, but overall he’s played well through the first two, and much to my chagrin I can’t really complain. Also, as far as I’m concerned Ville Husso hasn’t made his NHL debut yet. We’re collectively forgetting that he ever played Friday. Okay, cool.
The next week. The Blues have 3 games on the docket this upcoming week—2 against the Sharks and one against the Kings, all at home. These are some weak teams, and especially after that game Friday I think anything less than 2 wins in regulation this week would be disappointing. The Blues need a solid bounce back performance, and these are the teams that it should be easiest to do it against. Let’s see if they do.
Around the League
Kirill Kaprizov is legit. Kaprizov, who plays for the Minnesota Wild, is an absolute stud and just a joy to watch. He’s dynamic, explosive, and in that stage in his career where no one has played against him and no one knows how to stop him. He has 4 points in 2 games, with 2 of those (1 goal and 1 assist) coming on OT game winners. There’s really no better way to burst onto the scene. This guy helps solidify the Wild as the fourth-best team in the West, at least.
The Penguins shaky start. After dropping their first two, Pittsburgh finally picked up a win on Sunday, albeit in a shootout. It’s early, and the Penguins still have the star power (Sydney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) to win any game against any team. But gone are the days of the Penguins being an elite team in the East, and there’s actually a very realistic chance that this isn’t a playoff team as it’s currently built. There’s lots of games left to play, but still. Which brings me to my next point…
The East and the North are wide open. The West and the Central divisions have a clear hierarchy of elite teams and not-so-elite teams. The other two divisions, however, are really up for grabs by almost anyone. Sure, there are teams that should fizzle out sooner rather than later, like Ottawa and New Jersey. There are also some teams that should rise to the top and stay there, like Toronto, Boston, and Philadelphia. Other than that, who knows? This first week has made that parity of these divisions abundantly clear.
All stats from Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.
The 2021 NHL regular season has been shaped to be one of the most interesting of all time. With a dramatic new look, the divisions have set us up for some crazy fun matchups and series that I imagine will lay out pretty clearly during the season who will be representing each division in the quarterfinals of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. For those who aren’t aware of the recent changes to the league and postseason format, there’s a lot to take in. Canadian teams have been restricted by their government from crossing national borders to play against American teams, setting the seven Canadian teams into their own division. With no northern-neighbor teams allowed into the contiguous states, the league shuffled around the national teams to create three other divisions of eight teams each. These teams will play only amongst their own division and in baseball-esque series trips to minimize travel for teams. The divisions are the Scotia NHL North Division, Honda NHL West Division, Discover NHL Central Division, and MassMutual NHL East Division. Yes, you did read that right, brand-name divisions.
The playoff format has adjusted slightly to also conform to Canada’s limitations. Each division will send four teams to compete amongst themselves in a divisional playoff bracket. The winner of each of these brackets will meet for the quarterfinals, reseeded ranked by their division seedings, and then two for the Stanley Cup Finals.
So without further ado, my predicted ranks and seeding for all divisions through the playoffs:
Scotia NHL North Division
Canucks
Oilers
Maple Leafs
Jets
Canadiens
Senators
Flames
I think it’s pretty clear from the past couple of seasons which teams in the North are the hot ones right now. With young, high-flying teams, the Canucks, Oilers, and Maple Leafs are all built and destined for the playoffs. I think the Jets round out this group nicely as a real solid-built, reliable competitor.
Canucks vs. 4. Jets, Canucks in 5
The Canucks are a powerhouse team bearing down on the Jets who I imagine won’t be able to keep up with the pace and speed of their competition.
Oilers vs. 3. Maple Leafs, Maple Leafs in 6
I think the controversial pick in this selection is that the Oilers are the higher seed. I believe that their productivity will be higher against the washouts of the division, however their lack of depth will be buried by the overpowering Maple Leafs.
Canucks vs. 3. Maple Leafs, Maple Leafs in 7
This matchup is an absolute coin toss for me. I believe that these teams will split all their games this season, including the playoffs. I have chosen the Maple Leafs in the end because I have more faith in Andersen than Demko (who I imagine will win the starting job over Holtby).
Honda NHL West Division
Avalanche
Blues
Golden Knights
Wild
Sharks
Coyotes
Ducks
Kings
This Division feels a lot more tight to me than the others, with several peak teams and numerous fringe teams throughout. The Avalanche are going to come out on top by the skin of their teeth, with the Blues trailing just a point or two behind. I could see the Avalanche taking early and mid-season bumps in points that the Blues cannot overcome before the end of the short season. The Golden Knights have been a dominant and stacked force since day one and that’s not going to change.
Avalanche vs. 4. Wild, Avalanche in 6
The Wild have always been a tough team to play in the postseason, grinding down competition with physical play. I believe in the depth and strength of the Avalanche, however it won’t come easy.
Blues vs. 3. Golden Knights, Blues in 6
Same as above, the Golden Knights are a powerhouse. They can beat any team whenever they need, however I am not confident they can beat Jordan Binnington enough to lock them in for the series win, just like the Stars of 2020.
Avalanche vs. 2. Blues, Blues in 7
This matchup is going to be the most entertaining for the entirety of the season and postseason for all the divisions. These teams are building a strong rivalry, are both built to win now, and have vied to be the golden child of the Central (pre-COVID divisions) for some time. In this matchup, I truly see the Blues already-ranked 3 power play, enhanced by Hoffman and Krug, taking the cake.
Discover NHL Central Division
Lightning
Blue Jackets
Hurricanes
Stars
Predators
Panthers
Blackhawks
Red Wings
As a Blues fan, I am beyond envious of the elite teams that get to play in this division. You have two of the worst teams in the league, the Red Wings and the Blackhawks, in the same division that you get to play eight times. The Lightning might as well get sixteen games against the Little Sisters of the Poor, at least they have God on their side. The points leaders for the season will be in this division with so much low hanging fruit available, however no team in this division should count their eggs before they hatch.
Lightning vs. 4. Stars, Stars in 7
This is easily my most controversial take so far, as the Lightning are the defending champions and will definitely have the most points at the end of the season. But what evidence is there that the Lightning of a non-bubble playoff will have the same advantages and disadvantages as the bubble? The bubble was certainly a harder test by my standards, but the season before and a more traditional setting might result in the Lightning’s sad cycle resuming.
Blue Jackets vs. 3. Hurricanes, Blue Jackets in 5
The Hurricanes are a playoff team. That is where that sentence stops. The Blue Jackets will have a series that makes them look like potential champions when playing against the Hurricanes.
2. Blue Jackets vs. 4. Stars, Blue Jackets in 6
This will be quite the entertaining series, however I cannot imagine the gas will be in the tank for the Stars after a rough and tumble series against the Lightning. Goaltending will still be on point, but a broken and bruised team playing against a 5-game series team will be a tough hill to climb and not sustainable through the series.
MassMutual NHL East Division
Bruins
Capitals
Flyers
Penguins
Islanders
Rangers
Sabres
Devils
What can I say about this division that I didn’t just say about the Central? Another top-heavy, easy pickings division. Playing the Sabres and Devils will be vacations for the Bruins and Capitals. The top of the list, however, is a lot more strenuous. The Capitals look the same in the front lines, however their 3rd and 4th lines are weak. Many people will also point to the addition of Lundqvist to the roster as a boon, however I do not see him playing any games in the postseason, just serving as the veteran backup to the young gun being developed in net.
Bruins vs. 4. Penguins, Bruins in 6
The Penguins are always here to play, however their team has stumbled and halted their long-term greatness for the time being. The Bruins won’t have any walkaway games, but fans shouldn’t ever be scared by this series.
Capitals vs. 3. Flyers, Capitals in 7
I love the look of the Flyers. They are a fun, dark-horse kind of team that could ruin anybody’s run to the Cup, however they are meeting a juggernaut. The Capitals will be a team frustrated by being edged by the Bruins for first seed coming in to prove that they are the team they were in 2018 before it can be claimed that they’ve lost their throne on top of the league.
Bruins vs. 2. Capitals, Bruins in 7
The classic playoff matchup arrives. Two teams that will be heavy favorites to win the cup through the season and into the playoffs will meet to decide who takes the division title and bragging rights for the next year. The Capitals lost less talent in the defensive arena, however I am not confident that their young and fresh goalie is up to the challenge for slowing the Bruins powerful offense.
Stanley Cup Semifinals
These teams are seeded for the quarterfinals by their seeding in the divisional playoff, making the seeding the following:
Bruins
Blues
Blue Jackets (edged by the Blues in points)
Maple Leafs
Bruins vs. 4. Maple Leafs, Bruins in 7
Much like several other matchups in my projected postseason, it’s the young, up-and-coming team taking on the standard and seasoned behemoth that has dominated the playoffs. In the not-too-distant future, these teams will flop with who is on top, but for now the Bruins edge out a series victory to make another Stanley Cup Playoff.
Blues vs. 3. Blue Jackets, Blues in 6
The Blues have proven that they can grind with any team since around 2012, and have since then continued to stack and stack and stack talent to back up this grind. Led forward by ROR in center and the best young stud in Binnington, the Blues will be able to outclass and finesse the Blue Jackets to a series victory.
Stanley Cup Final
Boston Bruins vs. 2. Saint Louis Blues
How could this matchup not come back again sometime in these next few years. The Blues have started their apex of talent and success and will ride this wave for the next few years as top talent in the league. The Bruins are on the other end, keeping their rising sun from setting by continually playing fundamentally strong hockey. This series will not look like the last time the teams meet, however. The crazy back and forth of the series will be more steady and predictable with a more steady and predictable Blues team coming to the top. Blues in 6.
Hockey is back* baby! Normally we would be about midway through the regular season, having enjoyed the Winter Classic and 9 other respective outdoor games, and would be getting ready to analyze which teams would be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline and why. Instead, it’s the first week of training camp… but we take what we can get.
This is going to be an interesting year for the entire league, and many teams have their own unique storylines for the season, but the Blues are in an especially interesting point in their history. On the one hand, the streets of St. Louis were packed with over one hundred thousand fans for a championship parade just 18 months ago, and followed the franchise’s first cup win with a stellar regular season, entering the postseason as the top seed in the West. On the other hand, we all know how the postseason went. The Blues appear to be teetering on the edge of contention and decline; definitely leaning towards contention, but a step back wouldn’t be outlandish. I’m going to lay out a few reasons why I think the Blues are ready to bounce back to championship form, a few reasons why I think the Blues might not quite be there, and my bold predictions for the already fascinating 2021 season.
The divisional opponents. The Blues are playing in the Honda Divi- I mean, the West, which has more elite teams than any other division, but also has the steepest drop off after the Big 3. It’s not breaking news to say that the Blues are essentially a lock to reach the postseason; finishing outside of the top 4 behind one of the California teams or Arizona would be as shocking as it would be embarrassing. So, they should be in the playoffs, and that’s half the battle really.
Torey Krug and Mike Hoffman are some legitimate talents. Krug is one of the best defensemen in the league, and while he can’t be expected to make the loss of Pietrangelo negligible, he definitely helps. Hoffman struggles defensively, but on a team loaded with defensive forwards that can cover some slack his offense will be greatly appreciated, especially with Tarasenko sidelined.
Robert Thomas’s development. Thomas is poised to take another big step forward in his development as a core piece of this team. Based on how training camp has shaken out so far, this seems to finally be the year that Thomas’s name will be written in pen, not pencil, into the top 6 forward group. If the Schwartz-Thomas-Hoffman line sticks, expect a breakout campaign.
Some dead weight has been cleared out. Listen, Alexander Steen and Jay Bouwmeester will always hold a place in my heart, and like it or not both of them are some of the best to ever suit up as Blues. That being said, their time being productive in St. Louis was over. Besides the on ice benefit of both of them no longer being, um, on the ice, the salary cap savings have already paid dividends. See: Mike Hoffman.
The Negatives
No Vladdy. The Blues are starting the season without their best offensive player, Vladimir Tarasenko. Now you may say: “Oh, they did just fine without him for most of the regular season last year!” Maybe, but to what end? It’s obvious that they’re a significantly better team with him in the lineup. He wasn’t himself when he came back for the postseason, being a nonfactor in 4 games, and he might never again be the player that he once was (but that’s a conversation for another day). That being said, his importance to the Blues cannot be overstated.
The aforementioned divisional opponents. While the bottom of the division is as bad as it gets, the opposite is true of the top of the division. Colorado and Vegas are two of the best three teams in the league, alongside Tampa, and playing a good chunk of their games against these two juggernauts is going to be a challenge for the Blues. These teams have elite talent at every position and depth to spare.
The question of goaltending. Okay, this is where I might take some flack. I know that Jordan Binnington led the team to the Stanley Cup. I’ve heard about it once or twice. But last season, the cracks started to show. He had a good-not-great regular season in 2019-20, finishing just above league average in save percentage at 0.919 and essentially giving the team what they needed him to give. The postseason was a completely different picture. In 5 games Binnington put up a mind-bogglingly bad 0.846, good for second worst among all goalies that played, to go with a league-worst -9.99 GSAA (goals saved above average). What this means is that an average goalie would have prevented 10 more goals over the course of those 5 games. That’s a massive gap between the play of the Blues starting goaltender and the play of a replacement level player—not to mention the fact that fans and management expect a starting goalie to be playing well above replacement level. “Now okay,” you might be saying, “I thought we weren’t supposed to jump to any drastic conclusions from the weird bubble postseason thing.” That’s true. But we also shouldn’t ignore it, and the fact of the matter is the Blues had one goalie who looked like he was an NHL-caliber player last postseason, and he’s not on the roster anymore (I miss you every day Jake). All I’m saying is: there’s a realistic chance that this is the year the wheels fall off for Binnington, and there’s a realistic chance that it’s already happened. I’ve been a big Ville Husso fan for years, but he hasn’t even played a single NHL game thus far, so the confidence level in the goaltending tandem for me is pretty low.
Alex Pietrangelo is gone. It hurts losing a player for nothing in free agency. It’s made worse when it’s your captain, who also happens to be one of the best players at his position in the entire world. It’s made even worse still when he signs with another team in your division. I think, all things considered, Doug Armstrong made the right call in letting Pietrangelo walk. That being said, the Blues will feel his absence on the ice.
The Bold Predictions
Robert Thomas will lead the team in points. Now is the time baby! This kid’s been cooking for years, and the kitchen has gotten hot. Dinner is served.
Jordan Binnington won’t be the clear starter by the end of the year. The Blues haven’t had a reliable starting goalie in… ever maybe? Those struggles will continue this year, and by the end of the year Husso will at least be the Blues 1B option.
The Blues finish in 2nd in the division. This might not seem super bold, but Colorado and Vegas are the teams to beat, and I think the Blues will outplay the third place expectations that everyone seems to have for them and—despite their issues—finish second in the Happy Honda Days Division.
All stats from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
Neutral Zone Trap 