It’s been three weeks since our last weekly roundup, and I have decided to rename this series to set some more accurate expectations for the frequency of these articles. I’m sorry for the break, and I hope that you can forgive me. Without further ado, let’s dive into what’s gone down since we last spoke…
The Blues—Flailing Atop the West
In the last three weeks, the Blues have gone 4-4-1, including 3-3-1 in seven straight against the Coyotes and 1-1 most recently against the Sharks. The Blues are first in the West if you open up the NHL app and look at the standings, but their points percentage is below that of both Vegas and Colorado, who have 3 and 4 games in hand, respectively. Going below .500 in their last nine games doesn’t help matters for the Blues, and also not helping matters is the fact that they can’t seem to play a game without losing another forward to injuries. Here are some bits and pieces of note from the last 9 games:
Bright spots. Ryan O’Reilly and David Perron have both been playing at the dominant level that they normally do, both in terms of point production and controlling shot share. They started the season a bit slow, so their return to form as a duo is a great sign. Another player who has rebounded after a slow start is Vince Dunn. In the last 9 games, he boasts a 54.74 FF% (unblocked shot share) and 51.08 xGF%. His actual goals-for percentage is only 41.67%, but that should regress to something closer to the expected goals number. Another guy whose actual goals-for is chasing his expected is Robert Bortuzzo, who in 6 games since returning to the lineup has an impressive 59.77 FF%, 63.49 xGF%, yet only a 20 GF%. Finally, MacEachern has played pretty well in a limited role since stepping into the lineup due to injuries. Should he be a regular? Probably not. But he’s been more impressive than some of the other additions to the lineup.
Not so bright spots. First up is the inverse to Dunn and Bortuzzo above. This is a player that is putting up goals despite getting pretty well dominated at even strength: Mike Hoffman. With a 44.9 FF% and 44.44 xGF%, Hoffman is kind of getting lit up while he’s on the ice. And yet, the Blues score 66.67% of all goals scored while he’s on the ice. On the one hand, Hoffman has never been a great puck possession player and has still managed to find a way to score throughout his career. On the other hand, having bad puck possession players in large roles definitively hurts teams, and both Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou have been dragged down since Hoffman spent some time with them. Both are getting outshot and outscored while on the ice at even strength, even after Kyrou’s three-point night Saturday.
Really not so bright spots. Zach Sanford and Carl Gunnarsson have no business being in the lineup anymore. Both are getting badly outshot while on the ice, and even more badly outscored. In fact, in the last 9 games (of which Sanford has played 8 and Gunnarsson 7), the Blues are getting outscored 3 goals to 1 while either of these players is on the ice. That’s atrocious. It’s also a nice example of how the “eye test” and the statistical approach of analyzing players should almost always line up together; Sanford has had some obvious and egregious turnovers that directly led to goals in the past week, and a deeper look into his stats says that, yeah, it’s pretty common for him to be outshot and outscored, especially when he’s not glued to Ryan O’Reilly. Get these guys out of here as soon as possible.
Shooting percentage anomalies. The story of the season for the Blues this year has been Jordan Kyrou exploding onto the scene. Part of what’s fueling his 17-point campaign (including an incredibly impressive 15 at even strength) in 18 games is his 21.88% shooting percentage. That’s very high, and while it is normal for higher-skill players to have a higher shooting percentage than average—because, quite simply, they’re just better at shooting the puck—this one is sure to come back down to earth a little bit. Conversely, Ivan Barbashev, who has 5 even strength points and only 1 goal, is shooting at only 4.76%. While Barbashev is not a player like Kyrou who you’d expect to shoot at an above average clip, he also shouldn’t be shooting at this low of a clip. Expect some more bounces to go his way whenever he gets healthy again; it’s a sure thing that Kyrou and Barbashev will have much more similar shooting percentages at the end of the season than they do now.
The next few weeks. The Blues have three weeks of games against bad teams coming up, facing off several times against all three of the California teams. This is a good opportunity to recover from injuries and get back to playing at the level that they’ll need to be at when Vegas and Colorado come back in town. On the other hand, the top-heavy nature of the West means that, while in theory these games are a nice break for the Blues, in a way these are actually must-win games; they won’t come any easier that this. And if the Blues can’t cash in on as many of these easy points as possible, they might dig themselves into an insurmountable hole in the race for home ice advantage in the playoffs, and the privilege of not having to face one of Vegas or Colorado in the first round.
Around the League
Toronto rules the North. This isn’t really a surprise, but the last week or so the Maple Leafs have established themselves as the clear best team in Canada, and Auston Matthews has further established himself as perhaps the best goal scorer playing right now. There is some debate on whether Toronto is actually an elite team or just feasting on the weakest division, but in my mind the end result is the same: Toronto stands alone at the top of the North, and the final 4 playoff spot is theirs to lose.
Dallas and Chicago will eventually switch places. The Stars have struggled after getting off to a hot start, and the Blackhawks—I mean Kevin Lankinen—have been shockingly… good? Okay, let me clarify: Kevin Lankinen has been the best goalie in the NHL thus far, which probably won’t continue being the case, and the Blackhawks are still a weak team that is overmatched in their division. Expect everything to correct itself in the Central division soon enough, with both the Stars and even the Blue Jackets more aptly built for the playoff spot that the Blackhawks currently hold.
Lake Tahoe. This past weekend, the NHL hosted two outdoor games on the shore of Lake Tahoe. I’ve been to Lake Tahoe before, and it’s a truly beautiful place; the scenery set up by the league did not disappoint. There were some issues with the ice during the Saturday game, causing a nearly 9-hour pause between the first and second periods. I saw a lot of complaining about this, and even more “classic NHL” one-liners. While issues like that are right up the NHL’s alley, they shouldn’t and don’t take away from how legitimately cool these games were. I haven’t seen something as unique and amazing as a slow-mo highlight of a David Pastrnak goal with an orange sunset and silhouettes of the Sierra Nevadas in the background while watching sports possibly ever. To top it off, the NBC broadcast was unusually bearable and, dare I say, even fun. Good job, NHL. I knew there was a reason I liked you.
All stats from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
Brendan Komp (@brendanperson)
Neutral Zone Trap 