Hockey is back* baby! Normally we would be about midway through the regular season, having enjoyed the Winter Classic and 9 other respective outdoor games, and would be getting ready to analyze which teams would be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline and why. Instead, it’s the first week of training camp… but we take what we can get.
This is going to be an interesting year for the entire league, and many teams have their own unique storylines for the season, but the Blues are in an especially interesting point in their history. On the one hand, the streets of St. Louis were packed with over one hundred thousand fans for a championship parade just 18 months ago, and followed the franchise’s first cup win with a stellar regular season, entering the postseason as the top seed in the West. On the other hand, we all know how the postseason went. The Blues appear to be teetering on the edge of contention and decline; definitely leaning towards contention, but a step back wouldn’t be outlandish. I’m going to lay out a few reasons why I think the Blues are ready to bounce back to championship form, a few reasons why I think the Blues might not quite be there, and my bold predictions for the already fascinating 2021 season.
*for now
The Positives
The divisional opponents. The Blues are playing in the Honda Divi- I mean, the West, which has more elite teams than any other division, but also has the steepest drop off after the Big 3. It’s not breaking news to say that the Blues are essentially a lock to reach the postseason; finishing outside of the top 4 behind one of the California teams or Arizona would be as shocking as it would be embarrassing. So, they should be in the playoffs, and that’s half the battle really.
Torey Krug and Mike Hoffman are some legitimate talents. Krug is one of the best defensemen in the league, and while he can’t be expected to make the loss of Pietrangelo negligible, he definitely helps. Hoffman struggles defensively, but on a team loaded with defensive forwards that can cover some slack his offense will be greatly appreciated, especially with Tarasenko sidelined.
Robert Thomas’s development. Thomas is poised to take another big step forward in his development as a core piece of this team. Based on how training camp has shaken out so far, this seems to finally be the year that Thomas’s name will be written in pen, not pencil, into the top 6 forward group. If the Schwartz-Thomas-Hoffman line sticks, expect a breakout campaign.
Some dead weight has been cleared out. Listen, Alexander Steen and Jay Bouwmeester will always hold a place in my heart, and like it or not both of them are some of the best to ever suit up as Blues. That being said, their time being productive in St. Louis was over. Besides the on ice benefit of both of them no longer being, um, on the ice, the salary cap savings have already paid dividends. See: Mike Hoffman.
The Negatives
No Vladdy. The Blues are starting the season without their best offensive player, Vladimir Tarasenko. Now you may say: “Oh, they did just fine without him for most of the regular season last year!” Maybe, but to what end? It’s obvious that they’re a significantly better team with him in the lineup. He wasn’t himself when he came back for the postseason, being a nonfactor in 4 games, and he might never again be the player that he once was (but that’s a conversation for another day). That being said, his importance to the Blues cannot be overstated.
The aforementioned divisional opponents. While the bottom of the division is as bad as it gets, the opposite is true of the top of the division. Colorado and Vegas are two of the best three teams in the league, alongside Tampa, and playing a good chunk of their games against these two juggernauts is going to be a challenge for the Blues. These teams have elite talent at every position and depth to spare.
The question of goaltending. Okay, this is where I might take some flack. I know that Jordan Binnington led the team to the Stanley Cup. I’ve heard about it once or twice. But last season, the cracks started to show. He had a good-not-great regular season in 2019-20, finishing just above league average in save percentage at 0.919 and essentially giving the team what they needed him to give. The postseason was a completely different picture. In 5 games Binnington put up a mind-bogglingly bad 0.846, good for second worst among all goalies that played, to go with a league-worst -9.99 GSAA (goals saved above average). What this means is that an average goalie would have prevented 10 more goals over the course of those 5 games. That’s a massive gap between the play of the Blues starting goaltender and the play of a replacement level player—not to mention the fact that fans and management expect a starting goalie to be playing well above replacement level. “Now okay,” you might be saying, “I thought we weren’t supposed to jump to any drastic conclusions from the weird bubble postseason thing.” That’s true. But we also shouldn’t ignore it, and the fact of the matter is the Blues had one goalie who looked like he was an NHL-caliber player last postseason, and he’s not on the roster anymore (I miss you every day Jake). All I’m saying is: there’s a realistic chance that this is the year the wheels fall off for Binnington, and there’s a realistic chance that it’s already happened. I’ve been a big Ville Husso fan for years, but he hasn’t even played a single NHL game thus far, so the confidence level in the goaltending tandem for me is pretty low.
Alex Pietrangelo is gone. It hurts losing a player for nothing in free agency. It’s made worse when it’s your captain, who also happens to be one of the best players at his position in the entire world. It’s made even worse still when he signs with another team in your division. I think, all things considered, Doug Armstrong made the right call in letting Pietrangelo walk. That being said, the Blues will feel his absence on the ice.
The Bold Predictions
Robert Thomas will lead the team in points. Now is the time baby! This kid’s been cooking for years, and the kitchen has gotten hot. Dinner is served.
Jordan Binnington won’t be the clear starter by the end of the year. The Blues haven’t had a reliable starting goalie in… ever maybe? Those struggles will continue this year, and by the end of the year Husso will at least be the Blues 1B option.
The Blues finish in 2nd in the division. This might not seem super bold, but Colorado and Vegas are the teams to beat, and I think the Blues will outplay the third place expectations that everyone seems to have for them and—despite their issues—finish second in the Happy Honda Days Division.
All stats from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise noted.
Brendan Komp (@brendanperson)
Neutral Zone Trap 